What lies beyond yesterday's powerful feline pattern.
The current need for a further drop in the price of bitcoin and the majority of cryptoassets is something most permabulls have a hard time realising. Overcoming that cognitive dissonance is key to survival - and even profit from - in this ongoing bearish market. That's why we shared the 'three cats and a moon' pattern, which is similar to the popular 'psychology of a market cycle cheat sheet'.
Let's dive a little deeper. The comical yet serious pattern has only been invalidated during the epic bull run of 2017. That was the only year besides 2013 in which bitcoin didn't face any 'quarterly loss'. However, last year acted as a great reflection of the psychology of crypto traders. Who didn't know that humour was a great reflection of reality?
As we compare the current bitcoin chart with the pattern, what's visible is that we are approaching the lower end of the dead cat wedge on bitcoin's average price among certain key exchanges. This is better called a 'large symmetrical triangle,' which has already broken down on Bitfinex, the highest volume bitcoin exchange. Keep reading - no reason for alarm.
We can put our hands in the fire as cryptoassets are here to stay.
One thing all bulls, bears and other key figures in the industry are 100% convinced and agree on is that cryptoassets and blockchain technology are here to stay. This means that there will be a bottom. If the technology keeps improving and fuelling adoption, then the bounce will be similar to previous ones. Check out this video that was shared yesterday, if you haven't already.
Over the next few days it will become clear if bitcoin is looking to establish a new bottom further south of £4.3k ($6k) or if the consolidation will remain in this area. Since January we've been advocating a calm, 'move slowly' approach. Warren Buffet said, markets are a "device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient".
Momentarily, testing the theoretical bottom advanced by some researchers based on Metcalfe’s Law - around £1.4k ($2k) - seems highly unlikely. Yet, only a crystal ball could argue that precisely. Thus, let's find some comfort in the fact that the real bottom will only take place when "we are no longer focusing on price".
Filter the noise and stay ahead of the pack
Another interesting crypto conference, in Singapore, will commence today called De/Centralize 2018. Some of the top speakers include: Meltem Demirors, founder of Athena Capital, Tim Draper, the renowned VC, and Zooko Wilcox, founder of Zcash. Follow it here.
The top 100 cryptoassets by market cap have depreciated 7% on average over the past 24 hours following bitcoin's 7% loss. Tron, a project everyone loves to hate for various reasons, one being its promotion tactics, is up 8% - likely as it launched its testnet four days ago.
Two other popular projects showcased some strange activity yesterday. Firstly, ZCoin, a privacy-focused cryptocurrency, pumped over 160% due to a bug in CoinMarketCap, a ranking website that can make or break crypto prices. Secondly, Verge, another privacy-focused project, faced a not-51% attack, causing its price to depreciate by 20%.
An insight a day could give you more profits to play
Mark Karpelès, the infamous former CEO of Mt. Gox - the doomed exchange which went bankrupt in 2014 after loosing 750,000 bitcoin in a major hack - instigated a surprise 'Ask-Me-Anything' session on Reddit's '/bitcoin' sub-thread. Full AMA or summary?
Nicholas Weaver, a UC Berkeley Professor, is aggressively bearish on all things crypto. On April 1st he published four slides claiming blockchains are fraud. He was serious, although many considered it a joke. Worry not, here's a satisfactory initial rebuttal.
Derek Hsue, a student at Wharton, published a great piece on TokenEconomy - a popular crypto weekly newsletter - asking if "the war against ASICs is worth fighting". It expands on the brief analysis we shared yesterday, concluding it's a "game of cat and mouse".