Market report

THE CRYPTO ROUNDABOUT

London Block Exchange

13th March 2018

We are not just referring to the past month’s price action anymore

We are not just referring to the past month’s price action anymore

Over the past month, bitcoin has been trading between £6k ($8.3k) and £8.5k ($11.8k) — leading the rest of the markets in a cycle we’ve been calling the crypto carousel. We now have a physical version of this pattern, as the world’s first ‘Bitcoin roundabout’ is being inaugurated in Slovenia.

It is quite a sophisticated monument, as you can see in these pictures. For the markets, it’s a reminder to reflect on this trend — especially as the space seems to be losing its steam, with declining Google searches and increasingly fantastical bearish views.

Even a Goldman Sachs Vice President in charge of technical strategy and analysis just warned their clients that bitcoin could see new local lows below £4.3k ($6k). Overall, however, could it be a good thing that the market is wearing out the impatient investors who can’t handle the ride?

CENTRIFUGAL FORCES

How misery can be a good indicator for the coming month’s action

From a ‘fundamentals’ perspective, if you have been reading our report consistently then you will know that the technology is healthier than ever. There are more use cases everyday and the top alternative cryptoassets are providing solid competition for bitcoin — which is also responding quite well to the latest Lightning Network developments.

From a technical perspective, the current take is that we will likely keep trading within this range until the end of the month, where traders will then be forced to make a decision as they reach the end of this massive symmetrical triangle. Does a new ‘misery index’ indication that this is a good time to buy foresee a coming bullish trend?

It is difficult to say. Even the Goldman Sachs technical team failed several times before, as it’s easier to use TA for shorter-term moves — this can be seen in this bearish ether setup that some are playing today — but then that, too, is difficult. To ensure profit in choppy conditions, we believe the best strategy is to focus on the long-term while the “weak hands are shaken out”.

WHAT TO LOOK OUT FOR

Filter the noise and stay ahead of the pack

The People’s Bank of China has been talking about a centralised digital currency since 2014. They recently touched on the subject again, so it’s time to have a catch-up.

Rumours that Korea is looking to allow ICOs again started to appear yesterday, albeit with only one confirmed source so far. Joseph Young, a popular Korean reporter, wrote a nice summary about it — but is he trying to promote domestic blockchains like ICX?

The first 2018 meeting of Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors from the G20 summit starts next Monday. Japan just announced it will urge its counterparts to increase their efforts to “prevent cryptocurrency use for money laundering”.

WHAT TO READ TODAY

An insight a day could give you more profits to play

John Oliver’s cryptocurrency piece on Last Week Tonight caught everyone’s attention yesterday. Most agree the show was spot on — except for one comparison.

Saying “it’s 1984 for Bitcoin” has been a common mantra for a while — but can you go beyond the meme and understand why Bitcoin may become a utility like email?

The cryptoasset valuation debate deepens. Check out this summary of the existing models, which advances a new framework — an interesting adaptation of Black-Scholes options pricing model.

  • bitcoin
  • Goldman Sachs
  • Lightning Network
  • ICO
  • misery index