Market report

THE CONSOLIDATION CONSENSUS

London Block Exchange

26th February 2017

Until bitcoin completes its consolidation phase, trading might be slow

THE CONSOLIDATION CONSENSUS

Until bitcoin completes its consolidation phase, trading might be slow

After initially rising slightly on Friday, bitcoin started its traditional weekend drift and is currently sitting 10% below its weekend top, while the total market cap for all cryptoassets is down 7%. “Still in consolidation area” seems to be the consensus in the market.

On the bear’s side, some believe that this is the calm before the storm — mainly due to bearish signals on the weekly charts. Others are more optimistic, saying that the waters will only be choppy with several months of sideways trading — as was the case in 2014, when BTC last broke a parabolic trend.

On the other hand, bulls seem to be less focused on technical analysis and point to the underlying fundamentals of the space, highlighting bitcoin as its bellwether. Ark Invest — the first public fund manager to be exposed to the original cryptocurrency — combined both analyses in this article from earlier this month, concluding that developers are more important than price!

Overall, if the fight between bulls and bears doesn’t produce a clear winner soon, we might be in for one of those years where bitcoin predominantly trades sideways. If that’s the case, could 2018 be the year of the alts? Or did bitcoin just make a higher low and is now preparing to rise again, just like it did last September?

THE ICO CENSUS

The Year of the Dog is historically bullish, but ICOs are statistically a failure

Average S&P 500 returns since 1950 show that the Years of the Dog are the most profitable. This is purely correlational, however, with the logic behind the ‘pattern’ reminding us of the same kind of thinking that goes behind the majority of ICO investments — ‘ guaranteed’ profits.

ICO is an alternative acronym for Token Generation Events. While the first projects distributed their cryptoassets via Initial Coin Offerings, these days most revolve around creating tokens and selling them as securities. As the profits of early ICOs became so mythical, the acronym stuck — and even FINMA, the Swiss regulator, prefers to use it.

As the distributed crowdsale space got crowded, investors started falling for scams and many countries started to place regulations on the space. A popular website has analysed the 902 ICOs that took place in 2017 and eventually found that 416 of them have already failed!

WHAT TO LOOK OUT FOR

Filter the noise and stay ahead of the pack

If you want to find out which predominant figures are bulls or bears of bitcoin, check out this handy mini-website of Bloomberg’s and read each of their interesting observations.

France is cracking down on ‘unregulated cryptoasset futures and derivatives trading’, while Austria wants to ‘regulate bitcoin like gold and derivatives’.

Two to three days are left for the Ontology project’s airdrop, which is an alternative method for token distribution. All NEO holders are eligible — read more here.

WHAT TO READ TODAY

An insight a day could give you more profits to play

TokenEconomy’s weekly newsletter expands on the latest trend in the ICO landscape, asking what the implications are of the “massive ICO pre-sale hype”.

Laszlo Hanyecz, famous for his pizza purchase that first created an exchange rate for bitcoin back in 2010, just did it again — but this time with the help of the Lightning Network.

Valuation frameworks are always up for debate and Chris Burniske’s take on the equation of exchange has just been attacked! For the record, here’s Chris’ answer.

  • ICO
  • Ontology
  • NEO
  • Year of the dog
  • trade